Climbing the Covid peak: When governments have turned confidence tricksters

On June 14, a professor who taught us in college posted on social media: “Sometimes I wonder whether we’re being tricked into herd immunity”. The same day, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), one of whose eminent epidemiologist had “predicted” that the Corona virus pandemic would die out in India in May, came up with another gem.

It said that the Corona virus infection among Indians would peak mid-November as against previous predictions by other specialists who had indicated that the impact of the virus would reach its crest in July. The next day (May 15), the council sought to dismiss this finding, claiming in a tweet that “the news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading” while adding that “this refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR”.

Why the ICMR sought to debunk its own findings adds greater mystery to an already murky atmosphere, especially after the disturbing baloney that Niti Aayog’s “internationally renowned paediatrician, academic, medical research and health exponent” Dr V K Paul dished out, saying that there would be “zero cases” by mid-May. Dr Paul’s presentation was made on April 24.

What is even more questionable is that the data — related to the total Covid cases, fresh daily cases and the daily number of deaths — is dodgy and may not be fully reflective of the grim situation on the ground. It is common sense logic that sound, valid and dependable data is the best means to study and defeat an epidemiological problem.

The Centre, by its total silence (as opposed to the prime ministerial appearances on television hectoring people to do this or that in the initial days of the lockdown) and most of the state governments with their near-efficient skullduggery, have created almost a distorted reality, a dystopia, that seeks to seduce people into believing that the threat of the Coronavirus is behind them now and that they can emerge out of their homes and go about doing business as usual.

This primarily stems from the fact that the states, for a variety of reasons, ranging from willful suppression of numbers to insufficient testing, lack of healthcare facilities to attend to an increasing number of people with Covid symptoms and political expediency, are now seeking to open up their economies. The Centre of course is playing along, leaving the hapless people to fend for themselves, besides signalling that all is fine, everything is hunky dory and people must go about their avocations normally.

Since the virus is invisible to the naked human eye, the only thing that is available and visible, as a means to show the death and destruction that it is continues to cause, are graphs which in India’s case show a relentless upward trend: India is nowhere near the peak yet, although it is slowly but surely getting there. Over the past two weeks both the number of new infections and deaths — even if for a moment we take pause and ponder over the spurious data — have risen steadily: the number of new cases has touched nearly 12,000 daily and the average daily deaths is 289 (since May 31). This, in fact, comes close to a Chinese study which projected that India would experience daily infections of 15,000 under prevailing circumstances and conditions by mid-June.

Now imagine for a moment that instead of Corona virus-related fatalities, for the past two weeks India were to witness a train accident every day, causing the death of as many number of people who have been perishing because of Covid each day. There would have been an uproar across the country. There would have been loud cries calling for the railway minister’s resignation. The railway ministry would have been inundated with applications seeking compensation. There would have been collective breast-beating amid promises to take steps to ensure rail safety.

But, instead of redoubling its efforts to test more and more people, instead of putting up field hospitals (as is done in war-like situations) and instead of importing hundreds of thousands of RT-PCR test kits and PPEs, the Centre and the states have adopted an ostrich-like position, maintaining opacity in everything related to the pandemic.

Instead of sharing all details of the pandemic — which has destroyed human lives — with the public, the states and the Centre are assiduously hiding and suppressing information. Disturbing video clips originating from Delhi’s crematoria suggest a dead body overload. In the event the Covid deaths go up exponentially in the days and weeks to come — and there is every likelihood that it could — crematoria and graveyards across many of India’s cities — Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, among others –would run out of capacity.

This suggests that the lockdown and its intended outcome were mishandled as badly as the decision to impose the ham-handed diktat. Even as nearly 12,000 new cases are reported per day, the figure could reach a staggering 100,000 in a matter of a few weeks. Infections would increase exponentially as the Corona virus jumps onto newer human hosts and people come into close proximity and interact at a time when the lockdown is but a farce and when there is little or no attempt by the state governments to aggressively pursue the testing line to identify and treat patients. An extensive countrywide testing, tracing and isolation programme cannot be successful with Unlock 1.0.

What is even more questionable is that the data — related to the total Covid cases, fresh daily cases and the daily number of deaths — is dodgy and may not be fully reflective of the grim situation on the ground. It is common sense logic that sound, valid and dependable data is the best means to study and defeat an epidemiological problem.

The reason why a farcical lockdown remains in place is because the government seeks to mop up taxes in the perceived notion that reopening the economy would assuage public anger and frustration. What the states and the Centre didn’t do satisfactorily in the first 82 days of the lockdown — conduct tests, trace and isolate — could yet be done, provided there is political will. This would ensure that India would reach the ‘peak’ — elusive so far — of the infection curve faster, plateau off and then begin the climb down before the curve gets flattened. Reaching the ‘peak’ faster is the key to containing the virus.

On the other hand, a late ‘peak’ means a far distant and higher ‘peak’. This climb to the ‘peak’ will be marked by more rapid spread of the infection and greater death and destruction. It is as simple as that. However, the missteps and clumsy approach to a pandemic have ensured that India now stands at number four on the list of countries with highest cases, if not fatalities.

The Centre, by its total silence (as opposed to the prime ministerial appearances on television hectoring people to do this or that in the initial days of the lockdown) and most of the state governments with their near-efficient skullduggery, have created almost a distorted reality, a dystopia, that seeks to seduce people into believing that the threat of the Corona virus is behind them now and that they can emerge out of their homes and go about doing business as usual.

If renewed consumption is what the powers-that-be intend to achieve, they should know that dead humans can’t be consumers. If the infection curve is brought down within a stipulated period of time by an effective lockdown, while keeping the supply chain running effectively and providing cash transfers to the marginalised and the poor, the economy can restart with all cylinders firing. Tricking people into believing that all is well will spell doom.