Ismail Haniyeh Assassination Ignites Global Chaos

Ismail Haniyeh Assassination Causes Worldwide Chaos

Tighten your seatbelts. It could be a turbulent week ahead when a lot of things could happen, including a bloody war, gruesome killings, and a crazy surge in oil prices. It is important to know the context of why it would happen, but this is an age of unreason where events seemingly follow little logic. After all, much of what is happening now was not really anticipated until last week. How did the tide turn so suddenly?

No one will own up, but the current turmoil—including the bizarre assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and the killing of the Hezbollah leader in Beirut—is linked to the recent trip of Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.

He went to Washington at a time when U.S. President Joe Biden, who has steadfastly supported the war efforts of Israeli Defense Forces against Hamas in Gaza after the murderous attack on October 7 last year, decided to opt out of the Presidential race.

Hamas is holding 100-odd Israeli hostages, which causes a lot of grief for the families in the country who want Netanyahu to negotiate with Palestinian Hamas to get them released somehow or other. Netanyahu is unrelenting. He doesn’t want to negotiate. His heart is not in it.

Before Israel went to war with Palestinians in Gaza, Netanyahu was in a crisis. He was being investigated for corruption, and there was opposition to his attempts to rein in the judiciary. War for him provided him immunity, and many observers claim that he just does not want to talk peace at this juncture.

Netanyahu’s military ambitions are largely being met with the help of the United States, which has been supplying weapons, ammunition, and logistical support to Israeli armed forces. Despite the horrific assault on Gaza, which has seen 39,000 dead and many more injured, and despite the trenchant global opinion, neither the US nor Netanyahu has backed off.

This context was important to state there was some nervousness in Tel Aviv about how this change in the Presidential candidate from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris will impact the future. Harris was seen to be opposed to the war and was keen on a ceasefire. Though Netanyahu pays lip service to the ceasefire, he has shown no intention to stop the war at all. He openly says that he wants to decimate Hamas from Gaza. He has gone about killing the leadership of Hamas and even their relatives. Time and again, Netanyahu has raised the spectre of Iran and how it was using proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis of Yemen to destroy Israel.

In Washington, Netanyahu seems to have gotten an endorsement from the US that includes the Biden-Harris combination and Donald Trump, too, for military action against Hamas. Their support came after Netanyahu cut short his visit to the US after Hezbollah allegedly fired a missile at the occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 Israeli children. Even the most reticent Harris backed Israel.

Armed with this support, a bizarre assassination took place of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh when he was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new President Masoud Pezeshkian. Earlier in April, 60 members of Haniyeh’s group had been killed. Why was Ismail Haniyeh killed when he was a moderate of sorts engaged in discussions about working on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages? Killing him would suggest that Netanyahu was not keen to have peace with Gaza, as his continuance will be imperilled if the war ends.

What will Haniyeh’s death lead to? Ismail Haniyeh was killed when he was a guest and protectee of Iran. Now, Iran is threatening to retaliate against Israel. If that happens, then the US will hit back as Israel’s security is their responsibility. That has been the case for quite a while.

If Iran, Hezbollah, and Houthis retaliate in unison, then expect hellish fire in West Asia. Oil prices will soar, and the agreement that China has brokered between Palestinians and Fatah to prepare for ceasefire and peace will go up in smoke. There will be many more casualties of this conflagration – the US presidential campaign, for instance.

A world at war will see the rise of Donald Trump, whose Presidential campaign is sold on Israel and wants to deport all those who oppose the war. Kamala Harris and the Democrats that are surging after Biden quit the Presidential race could face serious reverses. A good election campaign that liberates the Americans from warmongering and promises freedom and a good time could become a casualty. November 2024 could look different.

What happens to India? New Delhi, which has been using its policy of strategic autonomy to walk the thin line between competing claims, would not know how to handle this instability. Its default position since Prime Minister Modi came to power has been to support Israel, but it would not know how to criticise Iran if it decides to exact revenge against Israel. India has been militarily invested in Israel, and this showdown between Israel and Iran could upset the house of cards that international diplomacy sadly is.

SANJAY KAPOOR is a Senior Journalist based out of Delhi. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India, its neighbourhood and West Asia. He is the Founder and Editor of Hardnews Magazine. He is a Member of the Editors Guild of India (EGI) and, until recently, served as the General Secretary of EGI.