Jammu and Kashmir in India is having an election to its legislative assembly after 10 years of direct rule by the central government. It will be held in three phases ending on October 1. 

This is also the first election since the erstwhile state’s political landscape changed dramatically five years ago. 

On August 5, 2019 the only Muslim majority state of India was divested of its statehood and of special status, which gave it limited autonomy.

Now a Union Territory with far fewer powers of self-governance than before, Jammu and Kashmir was promised a legislative assembly and the restoration of statehood at a future date. Many Union Territories in India do not have an elected legislature.

Jammu and Kashmir now comprises two regions – Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and Hindu-majority Jammu. The Buddhist majority Ladakh has been carved out as a separate Union Territory. There are 13 main political parties in the fray for a total of 90 assembly seats – 43 in Jammu and 47 in the Kashmir Valley – along with scores of independent candidates. 

The contest is essentially between two regional parties – the National Conference and the Peoples’ Democratic Party – and two national parties – the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

The National Conference and the Congress are in a pre-electoral alliance. The BJP has strong support among the Hindu voters of Jammu but unless it wins seats in the Kashmir Valley – which seems unlikely – it cannot lead the next government.  The BJP had formed an uneasy coalition government with the Peoples’ Democratic Party in 2014 which fell apart in 2018. 

This time around the BJP is counting on the smaller regional parties and the independents, including Islamsits and separatist sympathisers, to undercut the votes of the National Conference and the Congress.

If it emerges as the single largest party, it could form the next government in alliance with the smaller parties and independents.

The new state assembly will have curtailed powers with the Centre retaining administrative powers through its representative, the Lieutenant Governor. 

Whoever runs the next government will have to support the popular demand for restoration of statehood. Although the non-BJP parties could also demand reinstatement of its special status, that will be strongly opposed by the BJP-led central government. 

Any new government will face formidable challenges in meeting the pent-up expectations of the people including the problem of unemployment and fears of a population transition with outsiders being able to buy land in the region, which was not permitted before 2019.

The election to the legislative assembly is, therefore, crucial for defining the region’s political future.

Perspectives

What’s at stake as Kashmir goes to the polls
Mohsin Raza Khan and Shashank Ranjan, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat – The Indian government will have to take a considered view on doing more than statehood to Jammu and Kashmir.

Is the Jammu and Kashmir election a quest for political agency?
Ambreen Agha, O.P. Jindal Global University in Sonipat – The Pakistani standoff aside, the Indian government must go beyond ensuring only procedural democracy in the Kashmir Valley.
Kashmir’s parties united in agenda, divided by politics
Javid Ahmad Dar, University of Kashmir in Srinagar – Despite a common political agenda, ground level competition prevents a united front of Kashmir’s regional parties.
Jammu and Kashmir enters a new phase with elections
Aijaz Ashraf Wani, University of Kashmir in Srinagar – The Jammu and Kashmir elections are being shaped by local governance issues, not by any big national agenda.

Bharat Bhushan, Associate Editor, 360info, and South Asia Editor – Bharat has a strategic development role across 360info and is South Asia Editor leading our work across the region. He is a senior Indian journalist and columnist and former television show host on Foreign Affairs for RajyaSabha TV. Bharat has served as Editor of Catch News, founding Editor of Mail Today, Executive Editor of the Hindustan Times, Editor of The Telegraph in Delhi, Editor of the Express-News Service, Washington Correspondent of the Indian Express and an Assistant Editor with The Times of India.

(Cover Image: There are 13 main political parties contesting the Jammu and Kashmir elections along with scores of independent candidates. Michael Joiner, 360info. Credits CCBY4.0)