Electoral behaviour of voters has its own internal logic: the general belief is that the voters do not flip flop irrationally if they have no reason to do that. The question is, if the Congress party got handsome number of seats in the parliament elections May- June 2024, then why did it perform abysmally in some of the state assemblies where it had done well?

Bizarrely, such predictable voting behaviour is being frequently challenged by the results to the elections that have taken place in the last few months. Congress and other opposition parties are claiming ‘foul play” and making allegations of manipulation of Electronic Voting machines (EVM). Is there any merit in these allegations?

 For instance, Congress did well in 2024 parliament elections and it was expected to take its vastly improved electoral form to the assembly elections too that were to be held later this year! This  was a belief that was premised on not just the demand that is made on the electoral behaviour of people , but also the fact that the central government headed by Bhartiya Janata Party had done little to address  unemployment or inflation- the two issues that make people angry and impact their electoral choices. Despite these factors, Congress lost, not just in Haryana- four months after the parliament elections- but also in the crucial election of Maharashtra- 5 months after June elections- where it was leading an alliance. In Haryana, Congress was in direct fight with the BJP. It lost. In Maharashtra, it was  part of the INDI Alliance that had done well in 2024 general elections. Again it lost badly.

In Haryana, defeated Congress candidates are filing election petitions. Some failed candidates wanted the swearing in of the new government to be stalled as in their reckoning- in 20 seats there was electoral malpractice or manifest EVM manipulation. Court not just turned down the petition, but threatened to impose fine on the petitioners.

Many of these candidates lost be a whisker and were hopeful that the election petition can help them can help swing their fortunes in their favour. The ugly truth is that Election petitions do not get disposed of so quickly to enable the litigant to get justice. Frustratingly, though, for the litigant, the trial in HC carries on far beyond the stipulated period of 6 months ,which allows the painful status quo to continue.

The Courts, In the name of not disrupting the electoral process, have been accused of causing misgiving about the electoral process. The belief is If they decide, once and for all, that they will allow close scientific scrutiny of the EVM and also give option to voters to choose between a ballot paper and EVM then all doubts will go away. Instead, the ECI detractors claim, the courts have given precedence to “preposterous” claims by the ECI that the results of the elections will get delayed if ballot papers are used. The manner in which the ECI holds staggered parliament elections, it’s detractors claim, that last for more than  a month shows amply that the constitutional body is in no hurry to complete the process or install governments.

The script that has been played out innumerable times in the past elections, seemed to have repeated itself in Maharashtra. Again, Congress led alliance comprising of a part of NCP and a part of Shiv Sena lost when every pollster had expected either a close fight or a MVA win against the BJP led Mahayuth, which is also a similar amalgam of a part of NCP and Shiv Sena. Congress led alliance has charged Mahayuthi of enjoying the indulgence of a Supreme Court that did not debar the legislators that had crossed over from one party to another. Courts helped  these rump breakaway parties by giving legitimacy to the political turmoil in the state. If BJP led alliance won in Maharashtra than the credit should go to the favourable eco-system that had been created around.

There was little reason why the Maharashtra elections should not be held together with the states of Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir. However, the EC, in its infinite wisdom, chose to push it by a month  which helped the BJP led government to disseminate to the masses the message  of its schemes like Ladli behna yojna, which was in plain terms was a cash transfer of Rs.1500 directly into poor women’s account before the elections. The EC found nothing objectionable in the scheme and allowed it to extend it to October 15. Common wisdom is that the BJP led alliance which was on the back foot against a resurgent Congress after the June parliament results  began to display aggression. It has been explained by the votaries of the Mahayuti that the alliance  benefited from the “ladli behna yojana” quite like the BJP did in Madhya Pradesh, when BJP snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Even in MP, every pollster had shown the BJP trailing the Congress by 2-3 percentage points, but then again the Congress lost ignominiously. Again, cash transfer to the poor women had done the magic  for the BJP. The truth lay elsewhere as the Congress smells EVM manipulation. Thereare a number of reasons why the Congress led alliance is not buying its defeat;. There are suggestions that the Congress led alliance could either leverage the latest SC order that allows recount of VVPAT – voter verifiable audit machines- if the complainant pays Rs.47,500+to the EC. In Haryana, too, there were similar requests, but the EC just refuses to entertain these petitions. In case the Congress led alliance manages to have their way in Maharashtra, it will settle many issues simultaneously. If the losing opposition proves incorrect in its allegations than it will be a vindication of the ECI assertion. If it fails on every count like displaying mismatch of voters and those counted then it would be a body blow to the reputation of EC and the elections that it has connected. SC has thrown out a PIL in favor of ballot paper- this must be the umpteenth time it may have done it- but it cannot go back to its order which says you can get VVPAT revisited if there are cases of mismatch between votes polled and counted- and in Maharashtra there are many. The credibility of Indian democracy depends on whether the Court can force the EC to abide by this order. If the courts and EC do not bend to pressure then the Congress may launch an all India agitation against the use of EVM in elections.

(Cover Photo Credit: PIB)

SANJAY KAPOOR is a Senior Journalist based out of Delhi. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India, its neighbourhood and West Asia. He is the Founder and Editor of Hardnews Magazine. He is a Member of the Editors Guild of India (EGI) and, until recently, served as the General Secretary of EGI.

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