How can a militarized society with a battle-ready army collapse in just a week?
After successfully vanquishing the militants of the Islamic State and Turkey-backed rebels in 2016, the fighters of the Syrian Arab Army were considered to be a formidable fighting force that had built a reputation for developing the heft to influence events in the Middle East. On November 27, when the second-largest city of Syria, Aleppo, fell without too much of a fight against an entity that was cloned by the covert operatives of the U.S. and Israel from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda variant – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Muhammad al-Golani, the big question is – How did a nation with such a formidable, battle-hardened military power crumble like a cookie?
Was the army made to stand down to allow HTS and its Islamist boss to take over in Syria without a fight? This is what it seems as the speed at which the army refused to resist the takeover by HTS and the Salvation Front that rules Idlib province suggests that some deal had taken place either at the level of the army or with President Bashar al-Assad, allowing him to leave the country unhurt. That’s the reason one city after another began to fall after the Aleppo takeover was announced. The rapid downfall of President Assad was similar to the quick escape through army help in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and later Bangladesh. In all three countries, different shades of authoritarian figures ruled without being challenged effectively by a diminished opposition.
Syria’s plot does not seem any different from what happened in South Asian countries, but it seems with a twist.
Not too long ago, the U.S. government had slapped an award of $10 million for Abu Muhammad al-Golani’s head. Counter-terrorism specialists say that if the U.S. agencies were serious about killing him, a drone would have blown him up a long time ago, and the bounty shared. Surely, it was not intended as Golani was allowed not only to live but to dream big. He was built as a reformed militant who wanted to allow and preserve the very plural character of the society and restore democracy in a civil war-battered nation, Syria. To prettify the takeover, it was also done that exploits of Golani were scrubbed clean from the YouTube world, leaving no evidence of his violent past.
In the interim, the CIA, Mossad, and MI6 seemed to have done their bit to oust Bashar al-Assad and pave the way for a burgeoning new Middle East order before the new U.S. President Donald Trump took charge. Why is the incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden so desperate to change the contours of the Middle East and also Europe, where Russia is fighting a war against Ukraine? Not only has Biden encouraged Israel to ferociously retaliate against Hamas for daring to attack on October 7, 2023, but the Pentagon has given the Jewish nation all kinds of support, including unlimited supplies of weapons and funds. With both material and moral support, Israel, under its Prime Minister Netanyahu, has not only bombed Gaza out of shape but also gone into Lebanon while chasing the Shia militants, Hezbollah. For many days, Lebanon was also bombed like Gaza. In its early attack, the Israel Defense Forces took out Hezbollah chief, Nasrallah, through relentless use of bunker-buster bombs.
Without much fuss, the Israeli Defense Forces showed accommodation after refusing to relent in Gaza, despite being punished by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for being involved in a genocide against the Palestinians. At that time, no one really knew why the Israelis had agreed to a ceasefire. It was only when HTS captured Aleppo, the haze began to clear. It seems Israel, the US, and Turkey were in cahoots to oust Assad, and with competing forces eyeing different parts of the country based on their own reading of history, the Middle East may not be together again. Israel has unveiled its ambitions—Golan Heights, Mt. Hermon, and more. Last heard, Israeli forces are 15 km from capital Damascus. If Israelis take over Syria, then how will the Middle East look? What then truly happens to Iran? What speed at which all this is happening makes analysts breathless. What to write and what to leave out?
What is not really discussed are the implications of the changes in Syria on Russia, which is at war with Ukraine. Moscow has been squeezed by the US sanctions and military support by NATO forces. Moscow was deeply invested in Assad’s continuance as Russian Navy has ports in Tartus and Latakia. Thousands of Russians also stay in Syria. Tweezing out Syria from its control is meant to convey to Russia that it can hurt if it does not withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has its back against the wall, even when social media is full of conspiracy theories of how Assad was dumped by Russian President Putin as he could not be trusted. If there was any merit in this, then why has Assad been given asylum by Russia? What is clear is that the Syrian President Assad knew that his time was up. He tried to salvage his position by reaching out to intermediaries who were asking Syria to leave Iran. Some unconfirmed reports claim that Iranian intelligence had told Assad about the impending threat coming from Idlib and Turkey, but the Syrian President did not pay heed. It seems he had been softened by the forces that were wheeling in Golani. Some social media posts attributing their information to Iranian sources claim that Tehran realized that Assad was playing some other game and he had no desire to fight the incoming forces.
What happens now?
What is evident now is that Israel and Turkey are riding on this change to fulfill their long-held agendas. Israel is fortifying itself and neutralizing any military capacity that the country might be having. It has blown up all chemical weapons and ammunition stores. As there is no resistance from Syria, it is in a position to capture Damascus. Will they do it or not will depend on how President Joe Biden looks at the issue.
Turkey is also playing a complicated game. Russia has been short-changed by Turkey and its clever leader, Recep Erdogan. Turkey is fired by this idea of being the new Ottoman and is keen to have continental size for itself. Occupying Syria is the first step. There are reports that Saudi Arabia is deeply upset with the happenings in the region as they upset the balance and give inordinate heft to Turkey and their ambitions can grow.
In other words, the happenings in Syria will leave a challenge for upcoming US President Donald Trump and what he wants to do with the “deep state,” which claims are responsible for the unending wars in the world.
And what will the wily fox US President Joe Biden do in the next one month? Will he cause some more trouble for Russia before he demits office?
This article first appeared on Sanjay Kapoor’s Substack. Here is the original link to the source. To follow Sanjay Kapoor on Substack, click here.
(Cover Photo Credit: Canva)
Al-QaedaAleppoBashar al-AssadDonald TrumpHTSICCIslamic StateJoe BidenMiddle EastMossadRussiaSyriaSyrian ArmyTurkey