The “new Syria”: Should Turkey be repatriating Syrians?

The new context

As Turkey pushes forward with plans to repatriate Syrian refugees under its “temporary protection” policy, questions arise about the safety and legitimacy of returning millions of people to a country still grappling with instability and the remnants of a devastating civil war. It has been a month since the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024. The emerging interim government in Damascus is now led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a coalition of Sunni Islamist groups formerly known as Al-Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant. The group was designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council’s Al Qaida and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Sanctions Committee in May 2014.

The leader of HTS and the new interim Syrian government, Ahmed al-Sharaa – also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani –, has been listed on the UN’s Al Qaida sanctions list since July 2013, predating HTS’s own designation. Al-Sharaa had ties with both ISIL and Al Qaida before severing them. Turkey, a NATO member, also officially designates HTS as a terrorist group. Despite this, HTS established a security partnership with Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), led by Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, from 2010 until mid-2023.

On December 19, Fidan told Al Jazeera that Turkey recognised the new Syrian administration as a “legitimate partner” and that the Turkish embassy in Damascus had reopened. He also called for HTS to be delisted as a terrorist organisation by the international community, starting with the UN. Despite this, there is no indication that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will move swiftly to delist HTS, as evidenced by its January 8, 2025 meeting, where a divided Council on Syria’s civil war appeared united on the issue.

A new emerging civil war?

As the situation in Syria remains fragile, tensions continue to rise. On December 19, 2024, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that although fighting had eased in many areas, civilians continued to suffer. On December 29, the Syrian Resistance Movement (SRM), likely pro-Assad, declared opposition to the new government. On January 4, the Iran-backed Alawite Islamic Forum (AIF) accused the HTS-led government of ignoring sectarian violence.

Clashes between the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have intensified, while infighting within the HTS coalition is increasing. On January 7, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened “military operations” against the SDF, further exacerbating tensions. With these developments, the risk of Syria sliding into a new civil war is increasing.

Can Turkey repatriate Syrians under “temporary protection”?

HTS remains on both the UN and Türkiye’s terrorist lists, making the repatriation of Syrian refugees to the “new” Syria highly problematic. Such repatriation violates the United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (the 1951 Refugee Convention), particularly its principle of “non-refoulement” (Article 33). This principle is binding on all states, irrespective of their status as parties to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

In December 2016, there were approximately 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. As of November 28, 2024, the Turkish Presidency of Migration Management reports that 2.9 million Syrians were under temporary protection, with independent estimates now placing the total closer to 3.5 million. While Turkey has shown significant generosity for more than a decade, the growing political and economic strain, alongside increasing anti-immigrant sentiments, has led public opinion to turn against Syrians. For these reasons, and to demonstrate Turkey’s shifting stance towards the “new” Syria, President Erdoğan recently announced the reopening of the Yayladagi border gate in December 2024 to facilitate the safe and voluntary return of Syrians.

Erdoğan and his Foreign Minister maintain that Turkey is committed to facilitating the safe and voluntary return of refugees, including infrastructure development, with plans to build housing for at least one million returning Syrians. Turkey’s Interior Minister declared that 30,663 Syrians returned home by December 27, 2024, following the fall of Assad. UNHCR data from January 3, 2025, suggests that over 115,000 Syrians have returned from countries including Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon since the regime’s collapse.

The refugee dilemma

UNHCR, which has registered 2.93 million Syrians in Turkey, has emphasised that refugees have the fundamental right to return to their country of origin at a time of their choosing, but all returns must be voluntary, dignified, and safe. However, it maintains that Syria’s current situation is too unstable for a significant number of refugees to return safely and sustainably, and this is unlikely to change soon. Turkey has not yet delisted HTS as a terrorist organisation, and by encouraging the voluntary repatriation of Syrians under its “temporary protection,” it is acting contrary to both the UN’s requirements and its own HTS terrorist designation. 

This could be seen as a violation of both the spirit and the letter of Article 33 of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, to which Turkey is a party. However, it has a geographic limitation that restricts refugee status recognition to those fleeing Europe, as agreed by it when it signed the Convention.

Kamal Malhotra is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center (GDPC) and has Guest Lectured at the School of Interwoven Arts and Sciences (SIAS), Krea University, India. Prior to his retirement from the United Nations (UN) in September 2021, Mr. Malhotra had a rich 45-year career as a management consultant, in senior positions in international NGOs, as co-founder of a think-tank and in the United Nations (UN), including as its Head in Malaysia, Turkey and Vietnam.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™

(Cover Photo: Syrian refugees returning to their homeland from Turkey by Anatolian Agent, available at https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Syrian_returning_homeland.jpg Credits CC BY-SA 4.0)