The New World Distortion: Between the Shock and Stun Strategy of the Geopolitical Implosion

The world is going through a moment of serious instability. It’s no longer about a “new world order”, but of a global distortion in which the fragile Geopolitical balances have been shaken with unusual violence. The war in Ukraine, the erosion of traditional alliances and the growing influence of distorted narratives about the legitimacy of governments, have created a volatile scenario, where populism, historical revisionism and vested interests are dangerously intertwined. In fact, in an extensive report the CSIS (Center for Strategic International Studies) based in Washington DC and authored by Max BERGMANN, paints a very gloomy and bleak outlook for the Transatlantic Alliance, one of disagreement between the United States and Europe, that will lead to an inevitable clash of strategies and philosophies and eventually, a painful divorce. He rightly states that China, Russia and now the US also considers that Europe as a whole and not only the EU is in a process of inevitable and inexorable decadence. The view does not take into account that Europe thrives in the face of adversity, and that despite its exhausted political class and its rigid, ineficiente and often incompetente bureaucracy, manages to continue evolving.

1. An Imperfect, but Necessary World Order

The international system born after World War II was not perfect, but it represented a framework of stability and cooperation that, with all Its flaws, was able to prevent nuclear world war. Despite the multiple conflicts that marked the Cold War and the period after the implosion of the USSR, the international order suffered conflicts and wars of high and low intensity that were, in fact, proxy wars between the two super powers and their blocks, albeit,  never reaching the point of nuclear Armageddon. Dispute resolution seemed to be channeled through a system governed by multilateral rules and agreements that allowed to lower tensions, although not resolving the irreconcilable and deeply-rooted enmity.

The logical course of action would have been to seek the evolution of that order, adapting it to the new and challenging geopolitical reality and strengthening its capacity to respond to those growing challenges. However, instead of an evolution, we have witnessed a process of accelerated decomposition, in which the main global powers and their leaders have chosen to smash the old game board instead of reforming and improving it. The gradual but relentless loss of economic, military and geopolitical weight of Europe, was an added obstacle for the world to confront these dangerous and unstable times that lie ahead.

2. The Strategy of Shock and Stun, the explosive cocktail of mixing Populism and Geopolitics.

One of the most inflammatory consequences of this new and perilous distortion of the World Order that was painstakingly built after World War II, has been the irresponsible and dangerous abuse of the “shock and stun strategy” favoured by President Trump, which could arguably be very effective in the corporate world or even in bilateral negotiations, but extremely dangerous when it is applied to geopolitics.

 President Trump’s modus operandi has been explained by himself in many interviews the last one the joint interview with Elon Musk in Fox News’ star anchor Sean Hannity.  The MO is very simple: first President Trump announces the most extreme and disruptive proposals, to shock foes and allies of whom he wishes to obtain concessions. The goal is to force the other side into a negotiation on the most favorable terms to his interests.

 I sincerely believe that applying negotiation techniques of an oriental carpet bazaar to Foreign Policy is a phenomenal irresponsibility for any world leader but lethally dangerous if it’s the president of the most powerful nation on the face of the Earth and unfortunately this strategy has been one of the main features of Trump 2.0. This is already causing deep and intense distortions to global stability and the essential predictability of the geopolitical actions of great Nations. All of this poses serious added risks of disturbances of the very fragile global geostrategic balances.

President Trump’s approach to Foreign Policy does not respond to a traditional vision of international relations, but to a transactional logic in which each agreement is seen as a simple episode (Even simplistic) of commercial bargaining. His pendular rhetoric, that swings from the promise of peace to openly embrace the manipulated Russian propaganda, has generated uncertainty among its allies and has contributed to expanding the Kremlin’s distorted and false narrative about Ukraine.

It should be obvious that some strategies that are effective and legitimate negotiating methods in the private sector, can have catastrophic consequences in the geopolitical sphere. Foreign policy is not a bazaar where you can haggle the Sovereignty of nations and the fate and destiny of their peoples.

3. The Russian Version of History and the Penetration of Propaganda.

One of the most alarming phenomena in this new global disorder is the effective penetration of Russian propaganda in political parties in the West. The obvious point of entry has been the extremes: radical left and extreme right, but today a growing number of moderate and mainstream politicians are falling in the propaganda trap.

For years, the Kremlin has actively worked to rewrite history and present its aggression against Ukraine as a legitimate response to an alleged coup d’état in 2014, as a consequence of the MAIDAN Square demonstrations that lead to the resignation of the President Yanukovich, the pro-Russian puppet head of state. This was dubbed an unacceptable coup d’etat by the Russian propaganda machine. This manipulated version of Ukraines history has started to circulate in conspiracy theory circles, extremist media and even among some international analysts.

This story, which in its beginnings only circulated in Russian state media, has found its way to Western media and analysis circles, yet once again. Arguments such as the alleged illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government, the characterization of Maidan as a coup d’état, the denial of the Russian expansionism or that the invasion of Ukraine is a war of aggression, have Been adopted by public figures and political parties who, in their rejection of the Establishment, have ended up aligning with the Kremlin’s narratives.

4. Ukraine and Europe at the Crossroads.

The war in Ukraine is not just a conflict between two nations; it is an existential battle for the future of Europe. If Russia achieves its goal of “Findlandization” of Ukraine, that is, to neutralize it (as the USSR imposed on Finland after de foundation of NATO) and turn it into a satellite state (as they have done with other neighboring states, that are no longer really sovereign) the consequences will be devastating:

1. The territorial integrity of Ukraine would be compromised, with the definitive annexation of territories occupied by Russia since 2014.

2. Draconian economic conditions would be imposed (especially by the USA) forcing Ukraine to repay for the massive military and financial aid received and for its reconstruction with their vast natural resources.

3. The Russian strategy of creating puppet states would be strengthened, replicating the model of Belarus and Kazakhstan.

4. The transatlantic relationship would be seriously strained, with a divided Europe that would be at the mercy of political mood and government changes in the United States.

5. The security order in Europe could crumble, leaving Poland and The Baltic States as well as easier prey like Moldova or Georgia and other countries,  in the crosshairs of Russian expansionism.

Some of the paid pro-Russian voices, the true spokespersons of Russian propaganda in the West, have even gone the length of denying that Russian expansionism exists with the fallacious arguments that Russia has plenty of territory and resources. What these Russian cronies hide is that the Kremlin is looking for something very different: a de facto recolonization of its neighbors to create a “buffer zone” or even better a “security zone” that will remove or at least distance “the danger that NATO represents close to its borders.” This is dangerously preposterous.

What is even more serious is that there are some mainstream analysts and politicians that have been seduced by  these siren songs. The extremist are much more than that, they a a main part of a vociferous chorus on lies and manipulation.

The problem is that the European response has been, in many cases, insufficient and uncoordinated. The weakness or lack of leadership of our political class (they are no longer an elite), as well as the fear of a direct confrontation with Russia and the lack of a unified strategy,  have disabled and killed a seriously proportional response to Putin’s aggressions since the escalated in 2007 with the annexed in 2008 of the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abjassia, and everything that followed.

5. The Economy and Geopolitics: Russia is not a true Global Power.

You can’t be a global power with a GDP of just 2.2 trillion US Dollars. Russia is at most a medium power in economic terms. To put this in perspective, its economy is smaller than that of Italy and not much bigger than Spain’s.

Russia’s power lies in its military capacity and in its muscle in the Energy sector, but its economy does not allow it to sustain a sustained expansionist strategy without serious internal consequences. This is where the European geoeconomics can influence geopolitics: Europe still has strategic tools to contain

Russia, trade, commerce, investment and financial weapons plus Europe’s domination of Russias access to international waters as it controls the sea exits of its Black Sea, Baltic and Northern fleets. This includes the control of their access to key international markets. However, these tools must be used with determination and in a coordinated manner. Today’s European leadership lacks both.

6. The Possibilities of a Balance in the Midst of Chaos

Despite this scenario of global disorder, there are certain elements that hinder Russian dangers and prevent or at least mitigate the collapse of the international world order:

* Internal dissensions in the MAGA movement: Not all within the American conservative wing share the vision of a total abandonment of Ukraine. Even among the most loyalists like vice president JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco RUBIO, have expressed the need for a peace agreement that won’t punt Eastern Europe on the brink of future conflicts.

* The resistance of Eastern and Norther Europe is an example to all of us: Countries like Poland and the Baltic Republica have proven to be the strongest opponents of Putin, and are investing decisively in their own defense.

* The economic factor: Russia faces growing difficulties. Economic due to sanctions and lack of access to advanced technology, that could seriously limit their military capacity in the mid and long term.

* Ukrainian resistance: The determination of the Ukrainian people, their courage and military audacity have been key to stopping the Russian offensive. Russia has not managed to bend the will and pride of a country that has a fraction of its population, territory economy and armed forces. This in the textbooks of any military Academy worthy of the name is equivalent to a humiliating defeat.

It would be unfortunate that what was achieved with the effort and blood of thousands, is lost by the imposition of an unjust peace that rewards the aggressor.

The world faces one of the most serious geopolitical crises since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The global disorder that has been installed is not the result of chance or coincidence, it is the combination of strategic decisions, distorted narratives and the inability of certain international actors to face the Herculean challenges that we face in structured and coordinated way.

Europe cannot continue to act with weakness and division. Unfortunately Europe’s political classes (yesteryears elites) have shown in many cases mediocrity, incompetence, lack of leadership, courage or longterm geopolitical vision.

History has shown that when Europe does not take center stage or performs a central role in the resolution of conflicts, it ends up paying the insurmountable price of irrelevance, stagnation and involution.

The future of Ukraine is, to a large extent, the future of Europe. If Ukraine were allowed to fall or be defeated at the negotiation table, it would mean not only a triumph for Putin but a devastating blow to world peace, security and stability as well as for the world order that so many tens of millions died to achieve. It’s time for the West to decide if we want to be a passive spectator of global disorder or a key player to build and preserve global peace and stability.

Gustavo de Aristegui is a Spanish politician, diplomat and an international analyst.

(Cover Photo: Canva Pic)