The fragility of the liberal world order established after the Second World War is now starkly evident. The disunity among Western nations, exacerbated by a growing rift between the United States and Europe, portends a grim future. The rise of China and the resurgence—indeed, the intensification—of the Russian threat are profoundly unsettling the global geopolitical landscape. This division extends beyond state boundaries and is further complicated by the proliferation of pro-Russian and “Putinist” sympathizers within our own ranks. Such sentiments sow discord even in nations that recognize, albeit with significant disagreements, that both Russia and China pose serious threats to global security and stability for different reasons and through various means. The aggressive expansionism of both nations will not be mitigated by retreat, capitulation to threats, or dangerous appeasement. Pro-Russian factions, on both the left and right, label those of us who believe that democracy and freedom must be actively defended as warmongers. As Winston Churchill famously remarked about appeasers, they are “those who feed the crocodile in the hope of being the last to be devoured.”
The Breakup of the Transatlantic Link
Since the Cold War, the transatlantic alliance has served as the cornerstone of security and stability in Europe and beyond, marked by both successes and failures. However, fissures within this alliance have deepened over the past decade. American unilateralism, divergent trade and security policies, and the erosion of shared values have all contributed to a decline in mutual trust. As Joseph Nye notes in his work, Is the American Century Over?, the decline of transatlantic cohesion is partly due to the perception that U.S. and European interests have diverged significantly. This is evident in Europe’s reluctance to unconditionally follow the U.S. agenda, particularly on issues such as climate change and the nuclear agreement with Iran, even in light of evidence suggesting that Iran would exploit the agreement to buy time and obscure the military aspects of its nuclear program. This divergence began to take shape even under Democratic administrations.
Moreover, the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath have left deep scars on mutual trust, exposing vulnerabilities and differences in economic management. Surveys indicate a growing disparity in threat perceptions between the United States and Europe. For instance, the Pew Research Center highlights significant gaps in views regarding NATO’s role and foreign policy towards Russia. This has led to divergent policies in critical areas such as defense spending and the interpretation and application of economic sanctions against certain countries. The erosion of mutual trust is reflected in declining public support for transatlantic institutions. Eurobarometer statistics reveal a downward trend in European citizens’ confidence in NATO and in relations with the United States, a troubling development with long-term consequences that may be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse.
The Rise of China and the Resurgence of Russia
As the West fragments, China is solidifying its position as a global power. Its Belt and Road Initiative, massive investments in technology, and expanding military influence challenge Western leadership. Concurrently, Putin’s Russia, emboldened by perceived Western weakness, seeks to reassert its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Ian Bremmer, in his analysis on G-Zero World, warns that the tactical convergence of interests between China and Russia poses a strategic challenge for the West. It is crucial for the West to recognize that even if a rift develops between China and Russia, each will continue to challenge Western interests and pose risks if their aggressive expansionism is not curtailed. This alliance is predicated on opposition to the liberal order and the promotion of a falsely multipolar world that seeks to displace the West from the center of the global stage.
Furthermore, political scientist Graham Allison, in Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, explores the concept of the “Thucydides Trap,” emphasizing that conflict between an established power like the United States and an emerging power like China may be nearly inevitable. This scenario is exacerbated by China’s growing military sophistication and maritime expansion in the South China Sea, which generates tensions with neighboring countries and poses ongoing challenges to regional and global security.
The war in Ukraine has further exposed the West’s vulnerability to Russian aggression and the dangers of European energy dependence. Russia’s ability to destabilize the region and manipulate information has tested the resilience of Western democracies. Within the European Union, leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico exemplify how populism and historical revisionism can lead to pro-Russian positions that challenge European consensus. Their policies, which include weakening sanctions against Russia and disseminating pro-Kremlin propaganda, represent a dangerous Trojan horse within the EU. Research from organizations like the European Council on Foreign Relations indicates a significant increase in Russian disinformation in Europe, with a troubling direct impact on public opinion that fosters divisions not only among extremists but also between moderates and conservatives. This phenomenon has been evident in Spain, where a growing number of spokespersons echo Kremlin narratives without hesitation, often sourced from outlets like Russia Today. Russian propaganda has deeply infiltrated our societies, poisoning public discourse. Cyber-influence campaigns and social media manipulation have even affected electoral outcomes in several European countries.
The Urgent Need for Reform and Strengthening of the Transatlantic Link
Reconstructing the transatlantic link is an existential necessity for the West. It demands a renewed commitment to our shared values, closer coordination in foreign and security policy, and a unified response to the challenges posed by China and Russia. Anne Applebaum, in her thought-provoking book Twilight of Democracy, argues that the West must recognize that strategic competition with China and Russia is not a zero-sum game. Cooperation in areas of common interest, such as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation, is essential for preserving global stability. Similarly, Robert Kagan, in The Return of History and the End of Dreams, analyzes the resurgence of authoritarianism and nationalism, challenging the notion of the “end of history” and the global expansion of liberal democracy. Strengthening multilateral institutions and revitalizing international cooperation is crucial. The West must work to promote a global order based on rules, where international law and democratic values are upheld.
Time is of the essence. Western inaction will only hasten its decline. It is imperative that the United States and Europe overcome their differences and forge a new alliance grounded in mutual respect and the defense of democratic values. Only then can the West effectively confront the challenges of the 21st century and preserve its legacy of freedom and prosperity. Renewing the Western narrative, based on these principles, is essential to counter the pernicious influence of expansive and authoritarian powers. We must identify and denounce leaders within Europe who act in favor of spurious interests, regardless of their origin. We must also eliminate the influence of dangerous states, such as Iran, which promote terrorism through criminal means, including extortion and corruption. Only through unity and determination can we avert the “suicide of the West” and ensure the survival of our democracies. The disunity of the West and the weakening of the transatlantic link are not mere geopolitical trends; they are symptoms of an existential crisis that threatens to plunge the world into a new order dominated by authoritarian powers. The reconstruction of the transatlantic alliance and the defense of democratic values are moral and strategic imperatives that the West cannot afford to ignore. We must act immediately, before the twilight of the West turns into a long and terrifying night.
Gustavo de Aristegui is a Spanish politician, the Ambassador of Spain to India from 2012 to 2015, and an international analyst.
(Cover Photo Credit: Canva)
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